Kenneth R. Harney, Is the tax overhaul law impacting real estate?

WASHINGTON — A new record from the New York Federal Reserve sheds light on a question that’s been placed over the American actual estate market: Has the huge tax overhaul followed with the aid of Congress in past due 2017 had any effect on whether or not customers want to shop for or sell homes?
It’s an important issue due to the fact federal tax legal guidelines can make owning a domestic much less steeply-priced, or a long way extra than it otherwise would be.
The new observe does now not try and measure effects of domestic values or promoting costs. Instead it makes a specialty of income and concludes that the tax law’s $10,000 cap on deductions of kingdom and nearby taxes (SALT), its growth within the well-known deduction, and the $750,000 restrict on the amount of loan debt that qualifies for interest write-offs “have negatively impacted the housing marketplace” via lowering sales extent.
The study located that a slowdown in domestic income nationwide from past due 2017 through the third area of 2018 could be attributed in component to the tax-regulation adjustments, as well as hobby-price increases.
The law’s capacity effects on the actual property were debatable on the grounds that before the law became enacted. In the weeks main as much as the overhaul, housing and realty companies lobbying Congress warned of harm now not handiest to sales however to property values. The National Association of Realtors predicted fee declines, with the heaviest hits in excessive-value coastal markets where the new SALT limit might hit owners hardest.
But through all indications, there were no huge decreases in domestic values.
The Case-Shiller domestic-charge index, which tracks rate actions, has documented a modest slowing in the tempo of will increase these days but has recorded no net declines.
The National Association of Realtors’ personal records implies that even though sales of existing houses slumped within the final region of 2018 as interest rates improved, they have got rebounded on account that then. In February, sales rose nearly 12%, the largest month-over-month benefit considering that December 2015. Median home fees in February rose by using three.6% from the year in advance to $249,500, the 84th immediately month of year-over-yr gains.